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Pathways

The post covid-19 recovery in global air travel

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Pent-up demand versus the zoom effect: How rapidly will global air travel recover? 

Biggest crisis ever

COVID-19 took an unprecedented toll on air travel, with global revenue passenger kilometres falling 66% in 2020. 

Domestic air travel recovering

Domestic air travel is recovering rapidly, although international travel is lagging, due to lingering restrictions and quarantine requirements.

Industry forecasts too low

Industry forecasts for air travel volumes appear too low, particularly if travellers now make up for any of the travel lost during the COVID-19 period.

Zoom effect likely small

The loss of travel due to the recently proven effectiveness of teleconferencing could amount to as little as 3.3% of volumes, or half of a normal year’s growth.

Income the long-term driver

Growth in incomes remains the most important determinant of long-term volume growth. Price effects appear small at the national level. 

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