Let’s get digital: How real estate will drive the digital revolution

June 11, 2024
By: James Holliday-Smith, Alex Kubicek, John Lewis

Executive summary

• The fourth industrial revolution is underway as new technologies centred on the proliferation of data sweep across the globe, changing the course of the global economy. 
• Real estate – in particular data centres and towers – will be at the heart of this transformation. 
• The boom in artificial intelligence (AI) is driving strong demand for data centres. Supply will struggle to keep pace, resulting in strong rental growth. 
• 5G, with its promise of near-unlimited data capacity, is likely to be transformative for many parts of the world. This will require more towers, with more equipment, at closer proximities to the end user. 
• Towers are very scalable, and there are opportunities in Europe, where a large investment gap has emerged against the backdrop of the region’s 2030 digital connectivity targets. 
• Africa also represents a huge opportunity, with an estimated 861 million people across the continent still requiring an internet connection and strong demographics driving growth forward.

The fourth industrial revolution is underway as new technologies centred on the proliferation of data sweep across the globe, changing the course of the global economy. The potential for AI is boundless, but amidst all the hype, two key questions remain: where will this data live and how will it be transmitted around the world?

The first industrial revolution saw the widespread construction of factories, enabling mass-manufacturing and an improving standard of living. Similarly, the second industrial revolution facilitated the growth of modern cities, exemplified by the iconic skyscrapers of the time. The foundation to the fourth industrial revolution also starts with real estate, namely data centres and towers, which will lie at the heart of the global network hosting and distributing the next wave of technology. 

With so much made of the challenges facing the traditional real estate sectors of office and retail, in this paper we explore how listed data centres, towers, and digital funds management businesses can capitalise on structural trends to power returns into the future.

The house where data lives

It should come as no surprise that data lives in real estate assets that are aptly named data centres. These buildings are full of technology that powers a global ecosystem in which data is collected, organised, and analysed by a network of companies, individuals, and institutions to create economic value. Today, humans are generating more data than ever before, and it is being analysed and enhanced in ways that historically we never thought possible. To put some numbers around this growth, approximately 129 zettabytes of data were generated in 2023, up twofold since 2019 with a further doubling expected by 2027.¹

Companies all over the world are now working with data at scale, and AI and high-performance computing are providing profound insights that create value and accelerate progress. The media focus on generative AI (GenAI) has increased steadily in recent years, and some experts believe it could add trillions of dollars to the global economy. McKinsey estimates point to potential savings of $US2.6-4.4 trillion from productivity gains alone.² While the use of AI has been growing for years, we believe that we are at an acceleration point, especially when it comes to enterprise investment, with global spending on AI estimated to reach $US300 billion annually by 2026.³

Given the scale of computational power required to facilitate AI training and inference, these workloads will almost certainly be hosted in specialised data centres. Today, the main AI projects are being progressed by large hyperscale companies (think Amazon, Microsoft, etc.), and the long-term demand for both public and private AI applications is vast. We have seen this demand translate to a threefold increase of leasing volumes in the past three years (Figure 1). Consequently, data centre fundamentals have accelerated markedly, with both occupancy and rents trending higher.

Figure 1: Net absorption has surged in recent years

Sources: CBRE Research, CBRE Data Centre Solutions, 2H23.

Looking ahead, recent commentary from the major hyperscalers would suggest that these trends will continue to accelerate. As of 1Q24, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta have guided towards an aggregate capital expenditure (capex) spend of $US177 billion for the coming financial year (Figure 2). This represents an almost 50% year-over-year increase, an acceleration from the prior five-year growth rate of ~20% per annum.

Figure 2: Cloud capex by company

Sources: CBRE Research, CBRE Data Centre Solutions, 2H23.

To put the scale of the growth opportunity in perspective, one should consider recent leasing trends against the size of the existing data centre footprint. In the US, leasing volumes of 3.5-4 gigawatts (GW) in 2023 would represent demand for slightly more than 20% of the entire market, using JLL’s IT operational capacity estimates of ~16 GW.

With vacancy under 2% in markets like northern Virginia,⁴ the world’s largest data centre market, this demand-supply imbalance is leading to a rapid increase in rents as tenants battle for limited remaining space and finite future power capacity. 

Figure 3: Data centre rental growth

Sources: CBRE Research, CBRE Data Center Solutions, 2023. Note: Rental rates are quoted asking rents for 250-500 kW at N+1/Tier III requirements.

We believe the upward pressure on rents will continue, even in the face of new supply coming online, because demand growth will most likely outstrip the increase in energy availability in many markets. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), data centre power consumption is expected to increase at a ~15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2022 and 2026, implying a doubling of energy consumption globally. On IEA estimates, this increase is equivalent to the annual power consumption of an economy somewhere between the size of Sweden and Germany. 

In the US, data centre energy consumption is expected to move from 4% of national grid capacity to 6% over the same period.⁵ In specific markets, such as northern Virginia, the increase in data centre requirements is expected to fully exhaust the available power allocation by 2028, according to the primary local energy generator, Dominion Energy.

In addition to the allocated 8 GW of energy being exhausted, there is an incremental 8.5 GW of demand that is applying for a future energy allocation, an increase of more than 100%.⁶ This is an amount that is unlikely to eventuate without material increases in grid capacity, as it would crowd out other users, like households and non-data centre businesses. Since recent power outages in markets like Texas and California received widespread media coverage, grid operators are increasingly aware of the impact of peak load on power availability. Consequently, grid operators have a heightened sensitivity to the reputational repercussions of loading up the grid with power hungry corporate users at the expense of households.

Figure 4: Data centre contracted capacity versus demand (actual and forecast)

Sources: CBRE Research, CBRE Data Center Solutions, 2023. Note: Rental rates are quoted asking rents for 250-500 kW at N+1/Tier III requirements.

As AI becomes more prevalent, we believe that these issues around power availability will become acute. This comes down to the fact that data centre workloads are becoming more energy intensive as technology evolves. The latest evolution of computer chips, like NVIDIA’s Blackwell graphics processing unit (GPU), are significantly more powerful and energy hungry, which will see power consumption increase from ~10 kW a rack to >60 kW a rack, according to DigitalBridge (Figure 5).

Figure 5: Generative AI and power usage

Sources: *DigitalBridge, **NVIDIA. 2024.

The key is to identify sectors where demand can structurally outgrow supply, as this facilitates strong growth in cash flows and attractive returns. Given the bottleneck around land and power availability, we believe bargaining power will continue to shift from tenants to landlords, which will result in sustainable rent growth over the medium term. Industry data would suggest that existing owners of data centre-ready land that have procured power are in pole position to benefit from this dynamic by delivering new capacity into an undersupplied market. In the public markets, we believe companies such as Equinix, Digital Realty, Goodman Group, and NextDC are well placed to participate in this theme.

The power of the tower

Now that we know where data lives, let’s look at how it travels around the world. At the heart of the proliferating demand for data are new technologies that make it easier for us to consume and engage with the digital world. For more than two decades, connectivity has seemingly joined water, food, and shelter as one of life’s necessities. In recent years, we’ve seen technological revolutions flash before our eyes as we’ve moved from:

• 1G – remember voice calls? To…
• 2G – how good was the text! To… 
• 3G – hello mobile internet! To…
• 4G – enter mobile videos! And now to…
• 5G – unlimited data capacity?!

The latest revolution of 5G is the most powerful and transformative of all, as it will push the world into a new frontier of unlimited data capacity. The 5G revolution has been occurring for some time, with many nations starting their rollouts in 2019. Countries with the fastest adoption, such as South Korea and the US, have seen 5G penetration rates reach 50-60% of mobile users.⁷ However, it has not been a consistent experience globally, with Europe and many emerging market nations among the laggards. Given the advanced nature of its economy, Europe has been particularly slow in 5G adoption, sitting at just 25% of all subscriptions. Similarly, no European country cracks the global top 10 for 5G availability.

Figure 6: 5G availability across European markets

Source: OpenSource (2024).

In previous mobile technology generations, Europe was a world leader in connectivity, with the majority of the first users of 3G technology coming from the region. In contrast, only 4% of the first 500 million users of 5G came from the EU.⁸ However, Europe still has lofty connection goals, with a target to have all EU households covered by high-speed fixed internet and 5G wireless by 2030. 

It’s clear that a large investment gap has emerged, with the European Commission indicating that the capital required to reach its 2030 connectivity targets is around €174 billion. The lack of investment has seen a chasm open between Europe and the US and Asia in terms of the quality of their 5G services and mobile internet speeds. Evidently, digital stakeholders across Europe need to step up their rollout of 5G infrastructure across the continent if these connectivity targets are to be met, and telecommunication towers are a key enabler.

An accelerating 5G presence will require more towers, with more equipment at closer proximities to the end user. This confluence of more towers and increasing density presents an attractive growth trajectory for tower companies as their “points of presence” will increase dramatically. The number of tenant points of presence on each tower is measured by a tenancy ratio, which is a crucial driver of a tower company’s returns. While a tenancy ratio of 1x generates a return of 10%, the high incremental margin of adding one additional tenant at little cost means a tenancy ratio of 2x generates a return of 20%, rising to a return of 30% when three tenants are on a tower.

Cellnex, Europe’s leading independent tower company, has a current tenancy ratio of 1.5x, compared with tower companies in the mature US market that have tenancy ratios in the mid 2s (see Figure 7). In our opinion, this potential densification represents an attractive investment opportunity as the European telecommunications market matures. Combined with a contracted development program set to roll out approximately 20,000 new sites by 2030, we are encouraged by Cellnex’s ability to grow its points of presence consistently by 5-6% annually during this period. Cellnex’s rental contracts are underpinned by the Consumer Price Index or fixed escalators with an average contract length of 31 years diversified across 16 anchor tenants. This combination of predictable organic growth and strong tenant credit covenant results in high-quality cash flows, which, when turbocharged by 5G densification tailwinds, have the potential to drive attractive returns into the future. 

Sources: Cellnex, SBAC, Crown Castle, American Tower (2023).

Where activity goes, capital flows

To meet this rapidly growing demand for data, the sheer amount of capital needed is immense. With large potential returns on the horizon, investors continue to chase opportunities to deploy capital in digital real estate. Consequently, the capital-raising backdrop for digital real estate offerings has never been more vibrant. Some of the largest capital pools in the world are looking at their allocations in this niche and are keen to address their limited exposure. 

In 2022, even before the latest acceleration of AI momentum, private-equity firms accounted for more than 90% of ~$US48 billion in global data centre mergers and acquisitions. This level of data centre transaction activity was 66% above the prior record year in 2021.⁹ Backed by pension funds, sovereign-wealth funds, and family offices, the privateequity buyers included a mix of technology, infrastructure, and commercial real estate investors. This dynamic has only accelerated in recent months, with companies like Blackstone and Brookfield each putting out plans to deploy upwards of $US25 billion into the space.

Similarly, towers have attracted large pools of capital in recent years due to their attractive return profile, limited maintenance capex, and stability of cash flows. This was highlighted again in March 2024 when Cellnex sold its Irish tower portfolio to Blackstone-backed Phoenix Towers for nearly €1 billion at a multiple of 24x enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EV/EBITDA), significantly higher than Cellnex’s trading multiple in the listed market. The multiple disparity in tower pricing between listed and unlisted markets shows how private investors are willing to look through short-term market gyrations to invest in structurally sound, long-term digital assets like towers.

We believe that DigitalBridge, a specialist investment manager focused solely on digital real estate, is well placed to benefit from this boom in capital. Over the years, DigitalBridge has acquired and grown multiple data centre businesses, all of which have seen strong growth from AI-fuelled demand. As the existing supply is absorbed, there is a need for future development to meet growing demand. 

DigitalBridge sits at the the convergence of many of these themes and has earned the trust of its clients due to its history of strong returns. While capital-intensive projects and growing supply often pose risks for landlords, they are actually a tailwind for asset managers who benefit from the growth in capital-efficient, fee-based earnings. Having already grown its fee earning equity under management (FEEUM) at a 33% CAGR from 2020 to sit at approximately $US32.5 billion currently, DigitalBridge is guiding to at least doubling its FEEUM by 2028 to reach a level of approximately $US60-70 billion. We see DigitalBridge meeting and potentially beating its medium-term fundraising targets due to its attractive end markets and the sizable existing investment pipeline in its underlying portfolio companies. 

Figure 9: DigitalBridge’s fee-earning potential

Source: DigitalBridge (2024).

Digitisation supercharged – this time, for Africa!

With digitisation continuing to spread rapidly, the natural question arises: how can we supercharge the digitisation trend to be truly global? The answer lies in Africa, a continent whose share of the global population is expected to grow from 13% in 2000 to 38% in 2100.  

As the developed world embraces the rollout of 5G, 2G connections still account for about half of all mobile subscriptions in Africa. However, things are changing rapidly as trends in Africa mirror what is happening in the developed world and demand for data continues to grow.

The African population has a unique relationship with its phones, with many necessity services operating on “mobile only” platforms. This creates a strong bond and reliance on robust and stable wireless networks. With little investment in traditional grid-based broadband infrastructure, Africa has skipped the “home computer stage” (summed up with only ~21% of Nigerians using a computer to access the internet compared with 75% in the US). Africa’s “straight to wireless” move famously includes its banking needs, where telecommunication providers, such as Vodafone, Airtel, and Orange, also offer banking services as part of whole-of-house offerings. As a result, a phone is more important in Africa than an ATM for money management. 

It clearly isn’t demand that is behind sub-Saharan Africa’s lower internet adoption rates, which are between 25-40% below the global average; put simply, the real estate and infrastructure build has lagged. It’s estimated that 861 million people across the African continent still require an internet connection, representing a significant runway for growth.

Figure 10: Africa’s demand for internet connections

Source: We are social (January 2024). Note: regions based on the United Nations geoscheme. Local country values have been capped at 99% of the population. Comparability: source and base changes. All figures use the latest available data, but some sources do not publish regular updates, so figures may under-represent actual use.

To prepare for this wave of demand, tower supply has to step up significantly. To put the supply gap into context, it’s estimated that the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will need to build four times the current number of towers to give mobile access to its entire population. 

If data is the steering wheel, then Africa’s unique demographic mix is pushing the accelerator pedal to the floor. Looking at the DRC, a staggering 46% of its population is under the age of 14, while just 2.5% are over the age of 65. Given these dynamics, the DRC is expected to grow its population to 200 million by the 2040s, 300 million by the 2060s, and will be one of the largest countries in the world by the end of the 21st century. Boosted by improving life expectancy, the DRC epitomises the youthful demographic wave underpinning the African continent’s demand for data for decades to come.

Figure 11: Africa’s share of the global population

Sources: United Nations, Our World in Data (2024).

Our preferred way to access this theme is through Helios Towers, the continent’s highest-quality independent tower company. Helios’ cash flows are underpinned by long-term rental contracts consisting of a tenant roster of blue-chip global telecommunication providers like Airtel, Vodafone, and Orange. As mentioned, driving a ramp up in tenancy ratio is the key for a tower company’s returns. To contextualise the incremental returns offered from African towers, one tenant on a tower generates a 12% return on invested capital (ROIC), whereas three tenants on a tower generate a 34% ROIC. Helios is guiding to a tenancy ratio of 2.2x tenants per tower by 2026 from 1.9x currently, and we see the boom in data demand and demographic trends underpinning consistent growth in the coming years, particularly in Helios’ newer markets. In 2023, Helios generated a 10% growth rate in its number of tenancies, and we see strong structural tailwinds driving growth into the future.

When investing in emerging markets, risk evaluation is integral, and companies that can mitigate many of the inherent challenges of investing in emerging markets give themselves the best chance of outperformance. Specifically, Helios mitigates foreign exchange (FX) risk by generating more than 70% of EBITDA from hard currency contracts, which are priced in US dollars, euros, or Central African francs. Additionally, residual FX risk is addressed by linking lease escalators, which attempt to offset currency devaluations, to inflation. Helios has driven significant growth in the DRC even in the face of geopolitical uncertainties. We take the most comfort from the innate resilience of towers and telecommunications as a necessity-based business integral in the functioning of society, including one encountering geopolitical or economic challenges.

Another risk mitigant is the relative value of Helios amongst its global towers peer set. Helios is currently trading at a 7-10x discount to its developed market peers, and with the potential growth prospects offered out of Africa, we feel that investors are compensated for the inherent risk at these current levels. Ultimately, the most important factor is for Helios to continue delivering strong results at a portfolio level, which we believe will drive returns into the future.

Figure 12: Helios Towers – ROIC per tenant

Source: Helios Towers (2024).

Authors

[3610672]

1. IDC, 2023-2027 Worldwide IDC Global DataSphere Forecast, 2023.

2. McKinsey, “The economic potential of generative AI: The next productivity frontier.” 2023.

3. IDC, 2023.

4. CBRE 2H23 Northern Virgina Data Centre Trends.

5. IEA, 2024.

6. Dominion Energy, 2023.

7. GSMA 2023 (Mobile Economy of North America)

8. GSAM (2024)

9. Synergy Research Group, 2023.

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