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India is one of the few economies that has the ability to add labour and capital while still driving higher multi-factor productivity. The third edition of our Big Book of Trends is where we frame the medium-term opportunity and provide context to the megatrends shaping India.
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'India Stack' is catalysing rapid digital transformation which in-turn is driving a step change in total factor productivity. India has experienced a step change in total factor productivity growth in the past decade to 1.8% from 1.1%. Next, we see scaling digital public infrastructure and platforms across commerce, insurance, health, government.
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While history warrants caution, never before have government intent and global supply-chain dynamics come together in this fashion. We are seeing new investment intentions, business registrations, exports from selected sectors point to an improving trajectory.
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Layering on India's financial inclusion progress, areas like insurance, mutual funds, digital payments are seeing sharp penetration gains. We see India’s bank credit growth at a 1.3x-1.5x GDPg multiplier.
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India's working age population is set to rise and plateau at a high level for the next two decades. Our team dissects the country's favourable demographics and rising incomes which will drive a three-fold increase in discretionary spend by 2030.
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Macquarie India Equity Research aims to be a trusted partner to our institutional clients.
Our experienced team of analysts, with an average experience of over 15 years, provide independent, deep and differentiated insights in the Indian market. Recognised with a top-3 ranking in Institutional Investor’s regional surveys in 2022 and 2024, our bottom up and first principle approaches in our research connect the dots for our clients to capture alpha.
Our analysts steer the industry conversation on the megatrends shaping India, from the rapid digital transformation gains, to the financialisaton of savings, to the rise of the middle-class."
Aditya Suresh
Head of India Equity Research
