2025 is shaping up as another good year for Australian investors, supported by falling interest rates, resilient domestic GDP growth, and a broadly positive global backdrop.
Explore our key macroeconomic views and the asset class implications across equities, fixed income and real asset markets for the year ahead.
Macroeconomic outlook
The developed-world consumer is in excellent shape, and emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence, are creating new investment opportunities. Fiscal policy should remain a growth tailwind, with most of the impact from probable trade tariff increases likely felt in 2026.
Resilient global and domestic growth
The global economy has shown remarkable resilience despite recent shocks, which is promising for 2025 growth. This is mirrored in Australia, where GDP is 10.2% higher than pre-pandemic levels 5 years ago.
Inflation dynamics
Inflation in Australia has moderated significantly, driven by disinflation in goods and moderation in services inflation. However, inflation could return in 2025 due to higher tariffs and rising export prices on Chinese goods.
Policy expectations
Policy rates in developed markets are projected to decline further in 2025. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to join this global easing trend. Should inflationary pressures reemerge, central banks may halt rate cuts earlier than anticipated.
Healthy GDP growth and falling interest rates will create plenty of opportunities for investors in 2025, but policy and geopolitical volatility means they should stay flexible and nimble. In our Outlook 2025, we focus on where the opportunities may lie in each asset class.
Australian equities
Opportunities amid caution
The Australian equity market delivered near record highs in 2024, led by technology and financials, but we believe significant opportunities exist in underappreciated areas of the market.
Global equities
Measuring the world
The global equities outlook for 2025 revolves around a single critical question: can the dominance of US technology giants continue, or are markets approaching an inflection point?
Listed real assets
AI: a generational opportunity in listed real assets
As the global economy becomes more digitalised and electrified, hard assets across the real assets spectrum will play a pivotal role in enabling this transition.
Fixed income
Central bank easing cycle to provide support
Fixed income markets are expected to offer attractive returns and diversification benefits as interest rates and bond yields move lower, driven by moderating inflation and central banks cutting rates.
We expect further moderation of interest rates and robust economic growth in 2025, but we continue to believe we’ve transitioned to a ‘new normal’. A normal where neutral rates are likely to remain elevated relative to the past decade.”
Ben Way
Group Head, Macquarie Asset Management
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